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09 / DATA

Revenue Deferral Analyzer

Shipment and performance data surface carry-over risk before month end

50% time saved

REVENUE DEFERRAL ANALYZERORDERCARRY-OVER PROBABILITYTHRESHOLD 60%PO-00000022%PO-00000168%PO-00000241%PO-00000384%PO-00000412%INPUT SHIP DATE · WIP · BOOKING2 AT RISK

PROBLEM

Whether a delayed order would land in this month's revenue or carry into the next was only certain in the first days of the following month. Until then it was experience and instinct, and instinct differed from person to person.

THE OLD PROCESS

  1. 01Match the delivery report against sales orders
  2. 02Pull out the delayed lines
  3. 03Ask the factory where the shipment stands
  4. 04Judge by feel
  5. 05Find out in the first days of the next month

WHAT I BUILT

  • Carry-over probability per order, computed from five years of shipment history
  • The current month's report is compared against that history to compute a carry-over probability